(May 13) : PHL vs. Indonesia, Vietnam vs. Myanmar
(May 15): Indonesia vs. Myanmar, Vietnam vs. Timor Leste
After getting to its best start in the Southeast Asian Games, the Philippines stumbled against Myanmar, conceding two quick goals in the second half to lose, 3-2, and drop to third place in Group B.
Myanmar currently holds the lead at six points on a 2-0 record with Vietnam at second at 4 points. With four points on a win, a draw and a loss, the Philippines must win its last match against Indonesia on May 13 and must hope that Myanmar earns only one point in its last two matches against Vietnam (May 13) and Indonesia (May 15) to sneak to the semis as the No. 2 seed in Group B.
If the Philippines beats Indonesia, it will get to seven points and will improve on its goal difference of plus 3. If Vietnam beats Myanmar on May 13, Myanmar needs to win its final match against Indonesia to make the semis as a loss and a draw will hand the second semis spot to the Philippines on goal difference.
If Vietnam and Myanmar ends in a draw, the door is left open for Indonesia in the final match day. At seven points and plus 2, Myanmar only needs a draw to make the semis and end the Philippines’ dream; while Indonesia needs to win and pray that Vietnam will lose against Timor Leste to advance to the semis along with the Philippines.
Also, under a Vietnam-Myanmar draw scenario, a win by Indonesia and by Vietnam in the final match day sees Vietnam and the Philippines advancing. If Myanmar beats Vietnam, our chance of making the semis would rely on Timor Leste either winning against Vietnam or not losing by more than three goals.
Of course, that is all moot if the Philippines fails to beat Indonesia on May 13. A draw will not be enough.